![]() But it’s a pretty narrow gap between picks 7-10 and those teams in potential wild-card positions. Such is the price to pay for losing in Week 1. There are a few expected playoff contenders (the Giants, Seahawks, Steelers) showing up in this first top-10 projection. But they are trending the wrong way after Week 1. They still are the AFC East favorites (45.4 percent chance to win the division Miami is next at 37.4 percent), and their Super Bowl odds are the fifth-best (7.3 percent). The Bills, meanwhile, slid from 10.7 projected wins to 10.2. They were projected for 9.1 wins in Austin’s preseason model they’re at 8.1 now, minus Rodgers - still good enough for a 32.4 percent chance of making the playoffs (and the 17th pick). As we saw Monday, their defense and run game are good enough to keep them competitive, especially if Zach Wilson can put the ball, like, anywhere in the vicinity of Garrett Wilson. Well, for starters, the Jets didn’t plummet quite as much as one might expect. The Jets lost Aaron Rodgers for the season to an Achilles injury, then somehow rallied for a walk-off overtime win over the Bills. But that fork in the road was coming anyway, so may as well reach it with two high draft choices. The reality of that situation, and of this exceptionally talented QB class in particular, is it will force GM Ryan Poles to make a call on Justin Fields’ future as a franchise QB. ![]() The silver lining (if we’re doing silver linings with 17 weeks left): Chicago currently is projected to hold two of the top five picks in 2024 draft - the Bears have the Panthers’ first-rounder in their back pocket, courtesy of the ’23 draft trade for No. The projection has ticked up slightly since then (to 6.0), despite whatever … uh … that showing was in Week 1. ![]() Let’s just say that Bears fans didn’t love Austin’s preseasons projections, which had Chicago at a win total of 5.7 - tied for lowest in the league with Arizona. NFL Draft Film Room: 11 key plays from Adonai Mitchell and other prospects in Week 2 2.
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